India to outpace China by 2030: US intelligence report

Featured - December 11th, 2012
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India will outpace China to become a global powerhouse by 2030, according to a US intelligence report released on Monday.

The Times of India, citing the US National Intelligence Council report ‘Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds’, said that India “could be the rising economic powerhouse that China is seen to be today. China’s current economic growth rate – 8 to 10% – will probably be a distant memory.”

“As the world’s largest economic power, China is expected to remain ahead of India, but the gap could begin to close by 2030. India’s rate of economic growth is likely to rise while China’s slows,” the report said.

The report projected that India will surpass China, as well as the US and EU, in middle-class consumption. But both China and India could be mired in middle-income status unless they invest more in science and technology that would increase per capita income to the level of advanced economies, the report added.

China’s working-age population will likely peak in 2016 and plunge from 994 million to about 961 million in 2030. In contrast, India’s working-age population is set to culminate in about 2050, the report says.

India and China will dominate the world economy with “middle-class, not poor, which has been the condition of most people throughout human history” amid the gradual decline of the west, the report revealed.